Ouch, not good for Nader.

Ralph Nader, who essentially broke the election for Al Gore in 2000, has made a seemingly racist remark about Barack Obama on the very day the first African-American was elected president. The news caster looked pissed at Nader, wow, I wouldn’t want to be in that spotlight! See the video below.

It has happened.

After months and months of campaigning. It has happened. Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States of America. John McCain threw in the towel and supported Barack Obama, and did so in a very eloquent fashion, in my own opinion. While my analysis was off, since Barack Obama seems to have won Florida [and probably Ohio], and Indiana, and North Carolina as well as Virginia and Montana, Barack Obama has won.

Our new president is Barack Obama, and Vice President Joe Biden.

President Obama. It has a nice ring to it. Words cannot express how awesome this is, and how history has changed because of this. Only thirty or forty years ago, the average African-American was segregated and hated. Now, one of them has been elected president of the United States. Barack Obama is truly incredible, and it shows that Divided We Fail, United We Stand. This is America, this is our hope, this is our creed, written by the founding fathers in the constitution, stating that “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.” This is our time.

This is our chance for change.

Yes We Can.

Sam/NeciFiX

P.S. I’m all for McCain as Obama’s Secretary of Defense.

That’s right, election day is here. No more polls, no more estimations, whoever wins, wins today. Congratulations to both Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain for making it so far. Now, get out and vote! Unfortunately for me, I can’t write much more, for I have to go, and as I said, will be busy at the polls tonight. Remember everyone who can legally vote, go vote! This is definitely a historic election.

Sam/NeciFiX

While Barack Obama has been modestly and steadily climbing in the overall polling, he has been falling in a few toss up states. North Carolina has gone from a tie to a very, very insignificant McCain edge. Missouri is up to almost 1-point for McCain. Florida is down from a 2.5% advantage to Obama to a 1.8% advantage. Ohio has gone down about a half point or so, and Colorado, Nevada and Virginia have experienced slight polling decreases.

Pennsylvania, unfortunately for McCain, is even more leaning to Obama, at 7.6%. It was 7.4% yesterday. While it isn’t extreme tightening, it is tightening. Barack Obama still has over a 7% statistically significant overall lead going into election day. We are two hours away from election day here as I type up this post, and I will be very busy at the polls tomorrow, so, I hope to write a blog late Nov. 4th or Nov. 5th congratulating the winner!

While the tightening isn’t huge, it is still tightening. My final verdict on the toss up states:

McCain Wins:

Montana - 90% chance
Indiana - 75% chance
North Dakota - 70% chance
North Carolina - 60% chance [McCain has a insignificant 0.6% lead, however, I still think he'll win]
Missouri - 55% chance [McCain has a insignificant 0.5% lead, however, I still think he'll win]
Possibly Florida - 55% chance

Obama Wins:

Virginia - 80% chance
Nevada - 90% chance
Ohio - 70% chance
Colorado - 85% chance
Possibly Florida - 45% chance

I know that Obama has an almost 2 point lead in Florida, a small lead, but, a lead, however, I believe that McCain will still win it, just a gut feeling.

So, this is my estimation.

338 to 227 - Obama wins or 311 to 200, Obama wins. With Florida the key variant.

Vote tomorrow! Whatever you do, VOTE! Please vote! No matter for who, you must vote! This is a historic election. I hereby support Barack Obama for President, however, no matter who you support, remember to vote! I’ll post on Nov. 4th or Nov. 5th!

Here we go, election day tomorrow!

Written by Sam Sizer/NeciFiX

According to Gallup Presidential Polling, upon the traditional “registered voters” preference, Barack Obama has a commanding 13-point lead, 53% to 40%. In the “likely voters (traditional)” and “likely voters (expanded)”, John McCain has a bit more support, however, is still 11-points behind. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama has an overall +6.4% lead.

He has a +4.2% lead in Florida, +0.3% lead in North Carolina, a +3.8% lead in Virginia, a +4.2% lead in Ohio, a +5.5% lead in Colorado, and a +5.8% lead in Nevada. These seem to be further behind than in a few of the previous days, meaning the race is tightening a bit.

McCain has a +0.7% lead in Missouri, not even a percentage point, so, it’s essentially a dead heat. However, the polling obviously polls many different people, so Obama’s leads in some of these states may be much greater, or much smaller.

In the state that John McCain is desperately trying to win, also known as Pennsylvania, the Illinois senator has a +7.3% lead. Overall, throughout the past three days, his support in Pennsylvania has been between +7.0% and +7.5%, so, this is essentially a pretty average amount of support in the Keystone state.

If Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania, McCain’s chances of winning the election will have plummeted severely. Then, if Obama wins either Ohio or Florida, McCain is pretty much done for, and it looks as if he might, as he has a decent lead in both.

Indiana is still a dead heat. I’m pretty confident McCain will be able to hold onto it, but, maybe not, considering that much of his time is in Pennsylvania, whilst Obama is taking advantage of the Hoosier state’s toss-up status. However, according to a new poll done by Public Policy Polling, Barack Obama has a small 2% lead in Indiana.

For McCain to win, he has to grasp Pennsylvania, and then get either Ohio or Florida, then he has a shot. If Obama keeps Pennsylvania, McCain is pretty much done for, even if McCain gets both Ohio and Florida, which doesn’t look very probable at the moment.

Even if McCain gets Pennsylvania, Ohio AND Florida, along with the states Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and North Carolina, Obama STILL barely wins, the score would be 270-268. As long as Obama held onto Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, all states where he has a pretty decent lead in, he’ll still win.

If Obama wins Pennsylvania, but loses Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, etc. and the only state he holds onto is Nevada, then you end up at a 269-269 tie. Uh oh. If Obama loses all of that, except manages to hold onto Colorado, which has a pretty high chance of happening, he still wins 278-260.

If Obama manages to win all of the toss-up states, except for the obvious ones, like Montana, Arizona, Georgia, and North Dakota, Obama would win in a 364-174, seriously, that would suck for the Republicans. I project it’ll probably end up like this: 311-227 or 338-200, with Florida being the deciding factor. Out of toss-up states, McCain would win Missouri and North Carolina, possibly Florida, too, hence the variation [311-227 or 338-200].

In most scenarios, it looks like Obama might win. A lot of lucky coincidences have to happen for McCain to win. Lets hope nobody bugs the polls. Seriously, that’d be lame.

Check Chronic Blog for exclusive coverage on the race! Only 2 days left! Tomorrow, only one. Then, election day! I will be helping out at the polls 4-8 PM to make sure people vote, so, expect a congratulations to whoever won on November 5th! Remember, VOTE!

Oh, and did I mention North Dakota is now a toss-up state? It’ll go red, but, seriously, McCain has lost several Republican strongholds, including his own home state, which is ridiculous. He’ll still probably win it, but, the fact that a lot of these states are so close is just pathetic, seriously McCain, the hell are you doing?

Written by: Sam/NeciFiX

That’s right, we have a few more toss up states, according to Real Clear Politics. But, here are the current stats:

Overall: Obama +6.8%

Florida: Obama +4.1%
North Carolina: Obama +1.3%
Virginia: Obama +6.0%
Ohio: Obama +5.6%
Missouri: McCain +0.6%
Colorado: Obama +6.2%
Nevada: Obama +6.5%
Pennsylvania: Obama +7.5%
Montana: McCain +3.8%
Indiana: McCain +0.5% - I find this amazing considering McCain had a 3.0% advantage one or two days ago. Could Obama actually win one of the strongest Republican strongholds in the nation?

Now, for some new toss-up states. All have slipped from McCain’s grasp, apparently.

Georgia: McCain +3.0%
Arizona: McCain +3.5% - I can’t believe this is even a toss-up state. This is McCain’s home state!

While the chance is pretty high that McCain will win Montana, Georgia and Arizona, the fact that these are all toss-up states, especially Arizona, is incredible. This is McCain’s home state! In Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois, Obama has a solid 23.5% lead. McCain is clinging to just a bit over 3 percentage points in his own home state. Indiana, has been a Republican stronghold for the past
forty-four years, almost half a century, is virtually tied between Obama and McCain. Could Obama actually win here? At the very least, it has forced McCain to campaign in a state he never thought he would have to, causing him to lose valuable time in other important toss up states like Florida and Ohio.

Stay tuned for more! Three days until the election!

Written by: Sam/NeciFiX

Originally, the two Presidential competitors, Senator Barack Obama [D-IL] and Senator John McCain [R-AZ] were thought to only be contesting over a few states. Such as the two classic examples of Florida and Ohio, which decided the 2000 and 2004 election respectively, Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Nevada and North Carolina were alongside them.

It seems the timely Republican states of Indiana and Montana could be blue this year. According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Summary, Obama has moved ahead in North Carolina, which hasn’t gone for a Democrat in thirty-two years, since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The RCP Average Chart of Toss Up States shows that Obama has an average of a 3% lead in North Carolina. A small lead, but, still, a lead. It is possible that North Carolina’s substantial fifteen electoral votes may go to Obama on November 4th.

The news is the same in Nevada. According to the RCP Average, Barack Obama has a strong 7.4% lead in Nevada. Nevada was blue in 1992 and 1996, however, in 2000 and 2004, it was a red state. In many other presidential elections before 1992, Nevada was red. In Missouri, the Democratic Senator has only a 0.2% microscopic lead. Missouri might be an interesting state to watch for on election day. In Colorado, Barack Obama has a significant lead at a nice 6.5%. In Virginia, Barack has the same lead as in Colorado.

In Ohio, a key battleground state that every Republican candidate must absolutely secure, Barack Obama has a significant 5.8% lead, about 6%. In Florida, basically what decided the 2000 Presidential Election, by only a few hundred votes, Barack Obama has a smaller lead, however, it still is leaning towards Barack Obama at 3.5% overall. McCain can’t afford to lose ANY of the toss up states, maybe Nevada, but, he absolutely has to win as many as possible. Considering ALL of them at this point are leaning in Obama’s favor right now, it seems McCain has to do something huge — and very fast.

But, wait, it appears there is two more toss-up states, and they are leaning towards McCain! This may sound good to any McCain supporters, but, it’s very bad.

Why?

Because they’re both Republican strongholds. Indiana, which hasn’t been blue in forty-four years, now is one of the most unlikely toss-up states of 2008. While it’s pretty likely that it’ll still go red, it’s still pretty incredible that McCain is only up by 2%. Hell, even Dole won it in 1996 by 5%, and Dole was eradicated in a landslide vote versus Bill Clinton. Montana was won by George W. Bush in 2000 by about 25%. Bill Clinton narrowly won it in 1992 by 2%. Yet, Barack Obama is only behind McCain by again, 2%.

Could Barack Obama maintain all his toss-up state leads AND claim Indiana and Montana? Or will he attempt to do this and as a result lose support in some of the other toss-up states? Less than 5 days left until the election! Stay tuned!

Sam

As you’ve heard from McCain, Obama has vastly outspent him.

After Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the primaries, he refused public funding. Public funding would limit each candidate to some $80 million a month during the general election, and would be funded by taxpayer subsidaries. When Obama was a long-shot candidate, he agreed to this. However, as it became apparent the “Obama Effect” was huge, where people were donating insane amounts of money to Barack Obama’s campaign, he refused the funding.

Barack Obama has received so much grassroot support that it has completely totaled out any other candidate in American History. At this rate, Barack Obama is unstoppable, earning hundreds of millions, almost billions of dollars a month from grassroots supporters.

Right now, I have to go to a Phone Bank, however, check out the Washington Post article below on the Obama Effect as I call it. I myself have donated $10 to Obama’s campaign back in August.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302077.html

Sam Sizer/NeciFiX

Extremely funny clip from the Colbert Report on fox, regarding John MCCain and Sarah Palin’s concern for middle class America.

Indeed, yesterday afternoon, a very popular former secretary of state and former general, Republican Colin Powell has endorsed Barack Obama for President.

Colin Powell said perhaps some of the most intelligent, wise and simply common-sense things yesterday. Explaining in elegance and simplicity why he supports Barack Obama, and why our country is strong, what makes us powerful. Stating that Barack Obama would not only electrify our country, but he’d electrify the world. Colin Powell explained the hypocrisy of the McCain campaign with Mr. Ayers, and how they are trying to link Obama as a terrorist.

Colin Powell also explained how members of the Republican party were calling Obama a, “Muslim”, and then quickly denounced this, stating Barack Obama is a Christian, and then saying, “but what if he is, why would it matter?” and then delivered a powerful message about a Muslim young man who had the purple heart and other awards, and was a Muslim, and had died in Iraq for his country. Colin Powell seems to be a voice of reason in the sea of political insanity, and his endorsement video is definitely recommended to see. It is below. This is a blow to the GOP and shows a true man of character.

Sorry for my absence, my internet is screwy. I had planned to do a bi or tri weekly update on the polling, but, I have to use my mothers’ ancient computer to use the internet right now, otherwise I would have covered the 3rd [and final!] Presidential Debate.

Colin Powell is really an impressive guy to me.